Morning Commentary for Monday, November 15, 2010

by Steven Chanin on November 15, 2010

Good Morning SOM traders…Last week the market finally got some much needed selling. The big question is will it continue down this week or will it be viewed as yet another “buyable dip”. As we are already coming into the cyclical holiday/end-of-year rally period there will be upward pressure but, as always, with events taking precedence. Looking forward…here are this week’s economic announcements that could move the markets (all announcements are pre-market, 8:30am, unless indicated and all times are EST) – Monday: Retail Sales, Tuesday: PPI, Industrial Production (9:15am) Wednesday: CPI, Housing Starts and Thursday: Philly Fed Survey (10:00am). Overnight the Asian markets were higher and at the time of this writing Europe is slightly higher and the US index futures are slightly higher indicating a slightly higher opening today.

Technicals…Last week’s selling finally started to unwind some of the oscillators which were remaining at extreme overbought levels and with the S&P bouncing perfectly off its 20EMA. Here is what I see for technical support/resistance (all MAs are 6 month Exponential):
DJI: support $10,978 (50 EMA) resistance $11,205 (20 EMA)
SPX: support: $1,196 (20 EMA) resistance $1220 (prior swing high)
NDX: support $2.133 (20 EMA), resistance $2,197 (prior swing high)
RUT: support $714 (20 EMA), resistance $742 (prior swing high)

Mushrooms of Armillaria hinnulea

Mushrooms of Armillaria hinnulea

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