Morning Commentary for Monday, February 14, 2011

by Steven Chanin on February 14, 2011

Good Morning SOM traders. The bull market continues to grind higher! You can’t fight the trend but the longer it goes in one direction the more severe the correction will be when it finally arrives so downside insurance is as important as ever. Looking forward…we have a busy week of economic news that could move the markets (all announcements are pre-market, 8:30am, unless indicated and all times are EST) – Tuesday: Retail Sales, Wednesday: Housing Starts, PPI, FOMC Minutes (2:00pm), Thursday: CPI, Weekly Jobless Claims, Philly Fed (10:00am), Uncle Ben (10:00am). Overnight the Asian markets were over 1% higher. At the time of this writing Europe is mixed and U.S. index futures are basically flat.

Technicals…The Technicals remain at extreme over bought but remember that they can continue to do so for a long time as the market grinds up. If the pace slows there will be some unwinding from overbought due to time as opposed to from a pullback. Last week the NDX closed above its 5 year high of $2,195 set on 10.29.2007 and the RUT is approaching its all-time high of $855 set on 07.09.2007. Here is what I see for technical support/resistance (all MAs are 6 month Exponential):
DJI: support: $12,024 (20 EMA), resistance: $13,150 (2008 swing high)
SPX: support: $1,303 (20 EMA), resistance: $1,433 (2008 swing high)
NDX: support: $2,330 (20 EMA), resistance: $2,594 (2001 swing high)
RUT: support: $799 (20 EMA), resistance: $847 (2007 swing high)

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