GDP Report Today – Markets Could Sell Off – Hindenburg Omen

by Tom Nunamaker on August 27, 2010

E-mini S&P 500 1045.75 +1.00
EUR/USD 1.2717 +0.0015
30-Day Fed Funds 99.820 0.000
Gold 1238.1 +0.4

UPDATE:  GDP was bad (1.6%) but higher than the consenus range.  ES futures are +7.5 as I update this post at 7:56 AM Central time.

GDP report is due out this morning at 8:30 AM Eastern.  Consensus range according to Econoday is 1.0% to 1.5%.  This could move the market.   I’m writing this during the night before so future aren’t really pointing to one direction or the other yet.   Jon Williams at shadowstats.com hints at GDP contraction so look out for a bad number and a market sell off tomorrow.

The ForeTrade Market Snapshot yesterday said the  Euro/USD needed to break through the 1.2695 level to move higher.  It did this yesterday.  However, this is likely only a retracement move and the primary down trend will resume.  Use the move up to play the Euro/USD to the downside imo.

Twitter Update

Our Twitter page (http://twitter.com/sheridanoptions) is gaining some followers.  I’ve been posting interesting articles of interest to option traders.  One particular popular post was this article:

Third Hindenburg Omen Confirmation http://bit.ly/cCrvlZ.

The conclusion was the “market’s downside potential is finally starting to be appreciated.”   In the comments, someone said

“Techincally, we went from having a Omen to a confirmed Omen already.  A second sighting within the given timeframe is the confirmation.  Of course it does not guarantee a market crash or even correction.  Just means the odds are higher.”

So don’t panic yet, but keep some extra long puts in your arsenal just in case 🙂

Picture of the Day

My friend and professional photographer, Wally Reynes, is somewhere in the Afghanistan area doing a photo shoot.  Here’s a really cool picture he sent me today.  It’s not a safe place where he’s at so let’s all wish him a safe return!

Workers taking a break - Wally Reynes

Workers taking a break - Wally Reynes

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