E-mini S&P 500 1083.75 +2.00
EUR/USD 1.2837 +0.0041
30-Day Fed Funds 99.815 0.000
Gold 1250.0 +1.9

Markets look to open slightly up today but essentially flat.   Biggest report due out today is Pending Home Sales Index at 10:00 AM ET.  Euro was up overnight but is quiet at the moment.   The only potential market moving report left this week is the Employment Situation due out tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET.  Consensus Range from Econoday is all over the place from -160,000 to +75,000 with the consensus at =80,000 jobs.  Could be a bit of a roller coaster.  Since the report is pre-market, you won’t have a chance to make adjustments so do it by COB today if you want to hedge against this report.

Interesting Article

I read an interesting article at zero hedge “Are Existing Home Prices Overrepresented By Up to 40%?”  Apparently, the realtor Multiple Listing Service (MLS) is reporting the full asking price for home sales even if it was sold at auction for much less.  You have to wonder if the number in the housing reports we see are accurate then.  Interesting article if you have time to read it.

Picture of the Day

Early in my US Air Force career, I was in training at George Air Force Base, California (North East of Los Angeles in the desert).  I have lots of fond memories of the F-4E and wanted to share a picture taken at George AFB in 1989.. two years after I left.

F-4E at George AFB, California 1989

F-4E at George AFB, California 1989

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The market is looking higher this morning as overseas markets are rising on good economic news from China. The market has been in a tighter range over the last week or two which has been more favorable to non directional trading. We are now in the time frame for high probability iron condors for October. As you set them up do not forget to add some insurance as September can often be a volatile month.

On the U.S. treasury bond futures trading side be respectful of seasonality that may take the bonds higher but they do seem over bought here and pullback is very possible. Pullbacks are usually at a slower pace than than upward movements. Great vehicle to trade but manage risk with tight stops.

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Markets Continue Decline – Employment Report on Friday – Treasuries Rally

August 31, 2010

E-mini S&P 500 1040.00 -5.00 EUR/USD 1.2674 +0.0008 30-Day Fed Funds 99.820 0.000 Gold 1236.0 -2.0 The market sold off yesterday and look to continue the downward decline today.  S&P futures are down 5.00 as I write this.  European markets sold off today around -1.0% to -1.25%.  The EURUSD gave up some ground as well [...]

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Morning Commentary for Monday, August 30, 2010

August 30, 2010

Good Morning SOM traders…Last week the market reacted to news events yet again with gaps up and down and multiple SD moves. Friday saw a substantial relief rally off of moderately bad GDP news and parsing of Bernanke’s speech. For the first time since 1997 analysts, turning pessimistic, have rated less than 29% of stocks [...]

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GDP Report Today – Markets Could Sell Off – Hindenburg Omen

August 27, 2010

E-mini S&P 500 1045.75 +1.00 EUR/USD 1.2717 +0.0015 30-Day Fed Funds 99.820 0.000 Gold 1238.1 +0.4 UPDATE:  GDP was bad (1.6%) but higher than the consenus range.  ES futures are +7.5 as I update this post at 7:56 AM Central time. GDP report is due out this morning at 8:30 AM Eastern.  Consensus range according [...]

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Morning Commentary for Monday, August 23, 2010

August 23, 2010

Good Morning SOM traders…Last week the market reacted to news events yet again with gaps up and down and two days closing with multiple SD moves. Looking forward we have a busy week of economic news that can move the markets (all times est.): Tuesday 10:00am Existing Home Sales, Wednesday pre-market Durable Goods followed at [...]

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Morning Commentary for Thursday, August 19, 2010

August 19, 2010

E-mini S&P 500 1084.50 -2.25 EUR/USD 1.2877 +0.0014 30-Day Fed Funds 99.830 +0.005 Gold 1235.9 +4.5 Jobless Claims came in at 500K, above the concensus of 480K.   That’s the highest number since Nov 2009.  The markets dropped initially on the news but have recovered somewhat.  I don’t see any more economic data that will [...]

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7 Dangers of Weekly Options

August 17, 2010

Weekly options are here to stay as I mentioned in my previous article on the seven benefits of weekly options.   The CBOE has a page dedicated to weekly options with lots of good information.  In case you missed the CBOE link, here it is again: http://www.cboe.com/weeklys Most things in life, as in trading, are [...]

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Morning Commentary for Tuesday, August 17, 2010

August 17, 2010

E-mini S&P 500 1084.50 +7.50 EUR/USD 1.2882 +0.0098 30-Day Fed Funds 99.8150 -0.0025 Gold 1225.4 -0.4 Several Reports come out today:  Housing Starts, Producer Price Index (PPI) and Industrial Production.  Housing starts disappointed already.  PPI was inline with the consensus.  Industrial Production was a the upper end of the consenus.  Markets are reacting favorably.  European [...]

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Morning Commentary for Monday, August 16, 2010

August 16, 2010

Good Morning SOM traders…Last week the market reacted to news events with a gap down open on Wednesday with strong selling all day into a multiple SD drop by the close. This was followed by another gap down open on Thursday but ending with a much smaller move lower. Friday was also down but on [...]

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